FEPC Chairman Tsunehisa Katsumata, on November 16, 2007
I will be reporting on two topics today. The first is the sectoral approach to the
development of a framework for international action in the post-Kyoto Protocol
era as it relates to the electric power industry, and the second is the electricity
demand forecast for the coming winter.
In advance of the COP13 conference that begins on December 3 in Bali,
Indonesia, proposals for a post-Kyoto Protocol framework are being actively
debated at home and abroad.
On the October 15, Nippon Keidanren announced its “Proposal for a Post-2012
International Framework on Preventing Climate Change.”
To assure that this proposal is recognized by international society as a valid
framework, the Federation of Electric Power Companies has set down its
thinking on the sectoral approach for the electric power industry.
With the goal of reducing CO2 emissions worldwide, the electric power industry
has long supported and cooperated with electric power companies and others in
developing countries.
The focus of current efforts is to improve thermal efficiency at low-efficiency
coal-fired power plants in developing countries through the introduction of our
world-class operating and maintenance technologies.
We are currently working to improve thermal efficiency in such developing
nations through the activities of the Asia-Pacific Partnership (APP) on Clean
Development and Climate, whose seven member countries include the United
States, a nation that is not participating in the Kyoto Protocol, as well as China
and India.
In April of this year, approximately 50 technical staff gathered in Japan and —
using a 500-page handbook of thermal efficiency management technologies we
prepared for the project — visited actual coal-fired power plants to conduct a
peer review aimed at improving energy efficiency.
These activities have been highly evaluated, and at the second APP ministerial
meeting held in India last month, they were designated a “Flagship Project” that
can be particularly effective in reducing CO2 emissions.
We firmly believe that if these activities are widely recognized as an international
framework, and our nation’s best practices can be shared with many countries
where energy efficiency is low, this can effectively and significantly reduce the
world’s CO2 emissions.
According to figures released by NEDO, the New Energy and Industrial
Technology Development Organization, if energy efficiency at the world’s
thermal power plants was raised to the level of Japan’s current top runners, it
would have the effect of reducing CO2 emissions by approximately 1.7 billion
tons, an amount that exceeds Japan’s annual CO2 output (about 1.3 billion tons)
by a wide margin.
As you know, the Kyoto Protocol covers only 30% of the world’s CO2 emissions
because it applies caps on a country-by-country basis, and as a result, the
largest CO2 producer of all, the United States, is not participating in the Protocol,
and China and India, who are experiencing phenomenal economic growth, are
exempted from making reductions.
If we are serious about reducing the world’s CO2 emissions, we need a scheme
in which the nations producing the remaining 70% of the emissions can
participate.
In that respect, our framework to achieve higher energy efficiency through
mutual cooperation between developed and developing nations supports both
economic growth and global environmental protection, providing an incentive for
developing nations to participate.
In the future, the Federation of Electric Power Companies will also encourage
electric power companies in non-APP member countries to adopt this sectoral
approach.
I would now like to turn to the topic of this winter’s electricity demand forecast.
According to Meteorological Agency forecasts, winter temperatures across the
nation are expected to be as cold as in an average year.
In view of this, we estimate peak demand across the 10 companies this winter
may reach 158.74 million kW. Against this, we have a supply capacity of some 180.61 million kW, giving us a
supply margin of approximately 14%.
Record peak demand was recorded the winter before last, when temperatures
were low nationwide. Last year, however, record high winter temperatures
caused a year-on-year drop in peak demand of approximately 7 million kW, an
amount equivalent to the peak demand of Chiba Prefecture.
Electric power companies will therefore stay on their guard again this year, and
will work closely with one another to ensure a stable supply.
I would now like to speak for a moment as the president of Tokyo Electric Power
Company, and report briefly on our own winter supply and demand situation.
Winter peak demand of 53.8 million kW is expected at Tokyo Electric Power
Company. With the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant shut down as a
result of the Chuetsu Offshore Earthquake, we have worked to secure supply
capacity by: restarting thermal plants undergoing a planned long-term
suspension of operations; making use of test operation output; increasing output
from thermal and other power plants while confirming safety; and by purchasing
excess electricity from self-generators. As a result, we now expect to be able to
boost supply capacity by 2.4 million kW even during February, when supply and
demand will be tightest, to reach 56.8 million kW, giving us a supply margin of
approximately 6%.
Even so, securing this supply will require us to run older thermal plants at full
capacity, and to utilize test operation output from newly constructed power
plants. We are therefore proceeding with utmost caution, and are asking
customers to continue to cooperate with power conservation efforts.
More specifically, beginning next month we will ask residential customers and
large industrial users alike — via customer calls, messages on the back of
meter-reading slips, and other activities — for their cooperation in conserving
power.
